Koj puas tau pom tias cov xwm txheej zoo li ntau tshaj qhov tseeb tomqab uas lawv tau tshwm sim lawm? Cov ntsiab lus ntawm kev pov npav, piv txwv, feem ntau zoo li kev pom tseeb tom qab lub siab xav tau suav. Lawv hais tias hindsight yog 20/20. Ua lwm yam lus, tej yam zoo li ib qho pom tseeb thiab paub tseeb tseeb tom qab uas lawv tau tshwm sim lawm. Hauv psychology , qhov no yog qhov uas hu ua qhov kev tsis txaus ntseeg thiab nws tuaj yeem muaj feem cuam tshuam txog koj kev ntseeg nkaus xwb, tabsis tseem ceeb rau koj tus cwj pwm.
Cia peb los saib seb qhov hindsight yuav ua haujlwm zoo li cas thiab seb nws yuav cuam tshuam rau qee qhov kev ntseeg uas koj tuav thiab cov kev txiav txim siab uas koj ua rau ib hnub dhau hnub.
Dab tsi yog qhov Hindsight Bias?
Lub sij hawm hindsight kev tsis ncaj ncees hais txog cov neeg nyiam mus saib cov txheej xwm ntau tshaj li qhov lawv xav tau tiag tiag. Ua ntej ib qho kev tshwm sim tshwm sim, thaum uas koj tuaj yeem muab qhov kev twv ua ntej qhov kev tshwm sim, muaj tiag tiag tsis muaj txoj hau kev kom paub tias muaj dab tsi tshwm sim.
Tom qab ib qho kev tshwm sim, cov neeg feem ntau ntseeg tias lawv paub qhov kev tshwm sim ntawm qhov kev tshwm sim ua ntej nws tau tshwm sim. Qhov no yog vim li cas nws yog feem ntau hu ua "Kuv paub nws tag nrho nrog" phenomenon. Tom qab koj nyiam pab neeg los ntawm Superbowl, koj yuav xav tias koj paub tias lawv yuav poob (txawm tias koj tsis xav tias ua ntej qhov kev ua si.)
Qhov tshwm sim tau muab tso rau hauv ntau cov xwm txheej sib txawv, nrog rau kev sib koom tes thiab kev ua kis las.
Hauv kev sim, neeg feem ntau nco txog lawv kev twv ua ntej qhov kev tshwm sim kom ntau zog dua li lawv tau ua.
Piv txwv
Piv txwv li, cov kws tshawb fawb Martin Bolt thiab John Brink (1991) nug cov tub ntxhais kawm ntawv qib siab kom twv seb cov US Senate yuav pov npav rau qhov kev pom zoo ntawm Supreme Court nominee Clarence Thomas.
Ua ntej Senate pov ntawv tawm suab, 58 feem pua ntawm cov neeg tuaj koom tau twv tias nws yuav raug lees paub. Thaum cov tub ntxhais kawm ntawv tau txais kev pom zoo tom qab Thomas tau txais kev pom zoo lawm, 78 feem pua ntawm cov neeg koom nrog tau hais tias lawv xav tias Thomas tau txais kev pom zoo.
Lub hindsight kev thuam yog feem ntau hu ua "Kuv-paub-nws-tag nrho-raws phenomenon." Nws hais txog cov neeg yuav tsum xav tias lawv paub qhov tshwm sim ntawm qhov kev tshwm sim tom qab qhov kev tshwm sim tau raug txiav txim lawm. Piv txwv, tom qab koj tuaj koom rau hauv kev ntaus pob, koj xav hais tias koj paub tias pawg neeg yeej tau los yeej yeej ua ntej.
Cov tub ntxhais kawm ntawv qib siab thiab cov tsev kawm ntawv qib siab feem ntau tuaj yeem tsim kev sib tw siab thaum lawv kawm ntawv. Thaum lawv nyeem lawv cov ntawv, cov ntaub ntawv yuav zoo li yooj yim. "Tau kawg," cov tub ntxhais kawm feem ntau xav hais tias tom qab nyeem cov kev tshwm sim ntawm txoj kev kawm los yog kev sim. "Kuv paub tias tag nrho nrog."
Qhov no tuaj yeem yog tus cwj pwm phom sij rau cov tub ntxhais kawm kom poob, tab sis, tshwj xeeb tshaj yog thaum sij hawm xeem. Los ntawm kev xav tias lawv twb paub cov ntaub ntawv, lawv yuav tsis tau kawm cov ntawv xeem txaus.
Thaum nws tuaj mus xeem lub sijhawm, txawm li cas los xij, muaj ntau cov lus teb rau ntau txoj kev xeem ntau yuav ua rau ntau tus menyuam paub hais tias lawv tsis paub cov ntaub ntawv zoo li lawv xav tias lawv tau ua.
Yog tias paub txog qhov teeb meem no, tiam sis, cov tub ntxhais kawm muaj cuab kav tuaj yeem tsim muaj cov cwj pwm kawm zoo los daws qhov kev xav tias lawv 'paub-nws-tag-nrog.'
Cov lus piav qhia
Yog li cas xyov ua li cas qhov kev thuam no tshwm sim?
Cov kws tshawb fawb pom tias peb qhov kev hloov tseem ceeb sib cuam tshuam los pab rau qhov kev xav no pom ntau tshaj li qhov lawv xav tau tiag tiag.
- Ua ntej, tib neeg yuav pauv los sis ua tsis tau qis dua lawv cov kev twv ua ntej txog qhov kev tshwm sim. Thaum peb saib rov qab rau peb cov kev twv ua ntej lawm, peb yuav ntseeg tias peb yeej paub cov lus teb tag nrho.
- Thib ob, tib neeg muaj kev nyiam saib cov txheej xwm ua kev tsis pom kev. Thaum ntsuam xyuas ib yam dab tsi uas tau tshwm sim, peb yuav xav hais tias nws yog ib yam uas tsuas yog ua txhua yam tshwm sim xwb.
- Thaum kawg, tib neeg kuj xav tias lawv muaj peev xwm to taub txog tej xwm txheej.
Thaum tag nrho peb ntawm cov xwm txheej no tshwm sim hauv ib qho xwm txheej, qhov kev sib thuam ntawm hindsight yuav tshwm sim ntau dua. Thaum twg ib zaj yeeb yaj kiab mus txog qhov kawg thiab peb pom tias leej twg yog tus killer tiag tiag, peb yuav rov qab saib peb lub cim xeeb thiab nco ntsoov peb cov kev xav hauv kev txhaum. Peb kuj tseem yuav saib tag nrho cov xwm txheej thiab cov cim thib ob thiab ntseeg tias muab cov kev hloov no, nws yog qhov tseeb tau tshwm sim. Koj yuav mus kev deb ntawm naam xav tias koj paub nws tag nrog, tab sis qhov kev muaj tiag yog tias koj zaum tsis.
Ib qho teeb meem nrog qhov kev xav yog tias nws tuaj yeem ua rau tsis sib haum xeeb. Yog tias peb ua yuam kev ntseeg tias peb yuav ua tiav, peb yuav muaj kev ntseeg zoo thiab yuav ua rau muaj kev pheej hmoo tsis tseem ceeb. Tej yam zoo li no yuav yog nyiaj txiag, xws li tso qeeb ntau ntawm koj lub qe qe hauv cov khoom phom sij. Tej zaum lawv yuav muaj kev xav, xws li nqis peev ntau ntawm koj tus kheej hauv kev sib raug zoo.
Li ntawd, puas muaj tej yam uas koj tuaj yeem ua tau los tiv thaiv kev sib thab yuam kev?
Cov kws tshawb fawb Roese thiab Vohs hais tias ib txoj hauv kev tawm tsam qhov kev thuam no yog xav txog tej yam uas tau tshwm sim tab sis tsis tau. Los ntawm kev xav txog cov txiaj ntsim tau tshwm sim, tib neeg yuav muaj kev pom zoo ntau tshaj qhov tseeb.
> Qhov chaw:
> Myers, David G. Social psychology (8 ed.). McGraw-Hill Kev Kawm; 2005.
> Roese, NJ, & Vohs, KD Hindsight bias. Cov Kev Ntseeg Txog Kev Xiam Hlwb Psychological. 2012; 7 (5): 10.1177 / 1745691612454303.